HFRC Working Paper Series
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HFRC Working Paper Series
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Portfolio Choice
Bootstrapping and bias: The economic costs of misjudging downside risk
Hubert Dichtl,
Wolfgang Drobetz,
Tizian Otto,
Tatjana Xenia Puhan
HFRC Working Paper Series | Version 03/2025
The maximum drawdown (MDD), the maximum peak-to-trough loss associated with a series of returns, is a simple but highly important measure for investors with a downside risk budget. This paper compares the performance of three bootstrap simulation methods to estimate the entire distribution of MDDs from various global stock-bond allocations, quantifying the economic costs of biased estimates for three realistic decision-making scenarios. Compared to its benchmarks, the stationary bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1994) leads to the most precise estimates for the MDD which, in turn, helps avoid costly investment errors in portfolio construction and dynamic risk control strategies.
Speculators and time series momentum in commodity futures markets
Björn Uhl
Review of Financial Economics | 02/2025
In this paper, we analyze the relationship between speculators in commodity futures markets and generic time series momentum (TSMOM) traders as well as the impact of this relationship on the subsequent TSMOM strategy performance. We find strong empirical evidence across all commodity markets that speculators in commodity markets tend to trade a TSMOM strategy, which confirms the results found by Boos and Grob (Journal of Financial Markets 64, 100774). On the basis of this result, we also ascertain whether the degree of such alignment has an impact on the performance of the TSMOM strategy. We find that there is weak, but statistically significant and robust evidence to suggest that the higher the degree of alignment between speculators and a generic TSMOM strategy, the lower the realized performance of trading TSMOM in these markets. Albeit we find little evidence that this can be exploited in a dynamic investment strategy, this negative relationship suggests that if a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) trades commodity futures markets which are less commonly traded by other CTAs, these markets may not only increase the internal diversification of their fund but these markets may also have a higher TSMOM Sharpe ratio by themselves. Consequently, our analysis provides valuable insights into improving the portfolio construction of CTAs.